Expertise

Oil and Gas Expertise
Decision Analysis (DA) modelling
Exploration Reserve databases and Portfolio Evaluations
Decision Trees
Value of Information
Framing meetings and project management
Exploration Evaluation Process
Fiscal Cash flow modelling

 

 

Oil and Gas Expertise, XMT have a sound understanding in the exploration and development process for both oil and gas prospects, having worked in and along side all associated departments.  Our integrated modelling approach depends on building development scenarios from modular assumptions, requiring a close relationship with all technical groups including geophysical, geological, environmental, reservoir, development engineering, commercial, and strategic planning. Project involvements include :

  • Infrastructure led developments – N. Sea and N. American/Trinidad, and deep water Gulf of Mexico

  •  Coal seam and shale gas plays as parallel strategies for Major companies

  •  Major developments and play openers in W. Africa, Brazil and the Arctic

  •  Corporate strategy and LNG monetisation in North America and South East Asia

Fundamentals play a large part in strategy developments.  John at BG Group, and Les at BP and Woodside, held corporate strategic roles, giving them insight into how opportunities can be best monetised – analysing the full value chain from well, through transportation to product sale.  LNG supply and demand is a key component of the gas chain, especially when there is opportunity to play the global market and enter an established arena with a new business model (CBM (CSM) to LNG)

Decision Analysis(DA) modelling allows major sensitivities to be investigated with all conditional variables automatically updated, the impact compared through an economic model.  Applications include:

  •  A management tool for material exploration discoveries

  •  Ability to produce a cumulative probability curve of value for a halo of variables

  • Analyse multiple decision points in an oil or gas development


Exploration Reserve databases and Portfolio Evaluations allow addition of multiple reserve distributions, either for individual wells or well portfolios. 
The model encompasses oil in place distributions, geologic Chance of Success (CoSg), dependency and well drill sequence – with the ability to examine the results in a number of bespoke charts and put value on the full reserve probability distribution.

 

Decision Trees to demonstrate decision process, and correctly model dependency incorporating Bayes theory (conditional probability).

 

A Value of Information (VOI) study allows quantification and impact of information, with a VOI interview to establish the reliability of the information (requires an impartial author, who understands the technical and commercial implications)  Decision trees are created for :

  • No information

  •  Perfect Information

  •  Imperfect information

 

Framing meetings and project management: XMT can facilitate multi-discipline team meetings, using experience of both information flow and understanding the often disparate focus of the various technical groups involved.  The result can either be informal, the facilitator being just the catalyst, or a more formal approach where distinct strategies are worked.

Exploration evaluation process: the application of a uniform methodology for evaluating exploration prospectivity with commercial outcomes that appropriately reflect risk and reward
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Fiscal Cash flow modelling: generation and auditing of economic models in Excel.  
Experience with PEEP, ASSET and GEM economic models